3rd ISPMNA – List of Presentations

A pdf version of the program with abstracts can be donwloaded here.

A zip all all the presentations can be donwloaded here. (~ 80 Mb)

Regulatory/Generic Application

  • RG_001: Probabilistic Assessments: Principles and Computational Methods (B. Wasiluk, M. Pandey)
  • RG_002: Probabilistic Working Principles: a UK nuclear Structural Integrity perspective (M. Martin)
  • RG_003: Development of NRC Guidance on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics for US Nuclear Application (P. Raynaud)
  • RG_004: Review of probabilistic methods relating to volume 2 and 3 of the R5 procedure (O. CG Tuck)
  • RG_005: A review of best practices for application of probabilistic fracture mechanics to passive pressuve-boundary components ( M. Kirk, M. Modarres)

Uncertainty Analysis/Application of Probabilistic Approach

  • UA_001: Target Reliability Informed Design Optimisation (R. Marchall, P. Reed)
  • UA_002: Application of probabilistic leak-before-break for WWER-1000 UNIT (Y. Dubyk, S. Ageiev, M. Zarazovskii, V. Filonov)
  • UA_003: Application of xLPR to leak-before-break and the use of xLPR to support inspection relief in a pressurized water reactor (A. Udyawar, B. Golchert, M. Solmos, S. Sidener, E. Johnson)
  • UA_004: Estimation of the impact of pipe diameter on rupture using xLPR (D. Rudland)
  • UA_005: Uncertainty Analysis in Probabilistic Fitness-For-Service Evaluations of Zr-2.5Nb Pressure Tubes: Pilot Study on Probabilistic Leak-Before-Break (C. Manu, L. Gutkin, S. Datla)
  • UA_006: Effect of through-wall toughness distribution on conditional failure probability assessment under pts events (M. Yamamoto, M. Nagai)
  • UA_007: Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Assessment of PWR Reactor vessel bottom mounted nozzle (BMN) PWSCC (K.Fuhr, G. Lenci, J. Kim, G. White, M. Burkardt)
  • UA_008: Full bundle probabilistic analysis for the evaluation of steam generator tube integrity to NEI 97-06 Requirements (R. Cipolla, B. Woodman, W. Cullen)
  • UA_009: Quantifying LBB margins using probabilistic approach (X. Duan)
  • UA_010: Inspection optimization justification for PWR main steam and feedwater nozzles using probabilistic flaw tolerance approach (D.J. Shim, D. Somasundaram, C. Lohse, R. Grizzi, A. Cinson)

Uncertainty Characterization/ Inputs to Probabilistic

  • UC_001: Estimation of threshold parameter and its uncertainty using multi-variable modeling framework for response variable with binary experimental outcomes (L. Gutkin, D. Scarth)
  • UC_002: Statistical Characterization of CANDU pressure tube inner diameter and wall thickness using ultrasonic inspection data for performing fitness for service evaluations (D. Leemans, S. Datla, J. Robertson)
  • UC_003: Assigning uncertainty to input parameters in BEPU analysis: some regulatory insights (R. Mendizabal)
  • UC_004: Effect of proximity rule on conditional probability of failure under pts events (M. Nagai, M. Yamamoto)
  • UC_005: PFM Analysis code pascal-sp for aged piping – new probabilistic evaluation model of weld residual stress (J. Katsuyama, A. Mano, Y. Yamagushi, Y. Li)
  • UC_006: epistemic and aleatory uncertainy quantification for fatigue crack growth analysis (J. MacFarland, E. DeCarlo)
  • UC_007: Characterization and Quantification of Uncertainties in Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics with Applications to Probability of Detection and Sizing of Flaws and Cracks (M. Modarres)
  • UC_008: Accounting for Uncertainty in Complex Relationships (M. Erickson, M. Kirk, C. Sallaberry)


  • BM_001: Methodology for assessing pipe failure rates in advanced water-cooled reactors (B. Lydell, T. Jevremovic)
  • BM_002: Phase 1 PFM Benchmark of the IAEA CRP I31030 Pipe Failure Rate Estimate (X. Duan, K. Heckmann, R. Alzbutas, D-H Ahn)
  • BM_003: Comparison of deterministic and probabilistic approaches for LBB (D. Somasundaram, D.J. Shim, D. Dedhia, N. Cofie, C. Harrington)
  • BM_004: Benchmarking of xLPR models against MRP-216 R1 (M. Burkardt, G. White, M. Wolfson)
  • BM_005: Preliminary Results by Benchmarking Study of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Codes for Piping, Pro-LOCA, P-PIE, PEDESTRIAN (J.S. Park, C.S. Oh, S. Lee, M. Nagai, M. Yamamoto, N. Miura)

Probabilistic Codes

  • CD_001: Probabilistic Fatigue Analysis; Assessment of an Environmental Fatigue Thermal Shock Test to Quantify the Deterministic Code Margin (K. Wright, D. Leary, J. Batten)
  • CD_002: Development of probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis code PASCAL4 for Japanese reactor pressure vessel (Y. Li, J. Katsuyama, K. Lu)
  • CD_003: Probabilistic Assessment of VVER-440 reactor pressure vessel subjected to pressurized thermal shocks ( V. Pištora, M. Pošta, K. Šišsková)
  • CD_004: Optimization of crack initiation to reduce large sample size runs (C. Sallaberry, B. Kurth)